2020 OSCAR PREDICTIONS (UPDATED WITH WINNERS)
Article by Adam Mast
UPDATED WITH WINNERS–02/10/19
Another Oscars telecast is in the books and while the evening wasn’t without its predictable wins, there were definitely a few cool surprises!
Not only did Hildur Guðnadóttir become the first woman ever to take home the gold for Best Score (she won the award for her exceptional work on JOKER) but it was a historic night for PARASITE which went on to become the first foreign film to win Best Picture! This outstanding movie also won Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and Best International Film!
Congrats to Bong Joon Ho! Not only did he and his crew deliver one of the very best films of 2019, but the Korean auteur also delivered the best acceptance speech of the night! Rather than waxing self important, he spent the majority of his speech heaping gobs of love upon fellow nominees Martin Scorsese and Quentin Tarantino.
Speaking of Scorsese, his excellent epic, THE IRISHMAN was sadly shut out but Oscar showed some love to JOJO RABBIT! Taika Waititi became the first storyteller of Māori descent to win a statue by way of a much deserved victory in the Best Adapted Screenplay category.
As for my Oscar predictions, I went 17 for 24. I’ve had better outings in years past, but those certainly aren’t terrible numbers.
If you’re interested in having a look at all the winners, they’re highlighted red below!
On Sunday, February 9th, the Academy will hand out Oscars to the storytellers they believe delivered the strongest films of 2019. Now, we all know that the Oscars and other self-congratulatory awards shows aren’t a true barometer for all that is great in cinema because we all know that all art is totally subjective. That said, like a lot of other movie enthusiasts out there, I love to watch the Academy Awards telecast! It’s like our Super Bowl!
So, at the risk of embarrassing myself, here are my predictions for the 2020 Oscars. I’ve included who I think will win, who I’d like to see win, and some of the names I feel were overlooked.
Before getting down to it, it should be noted that there were a few major titles that I was unable to see. Included; “Bombshell,” “Harriet,” “Pain and Glory,” “Judy,” and “Missing Link.”
Feel free to play along and then, we can see how we all did following the big show on ABC on February 9th!
Best Picture:
“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit” (SHOULD WIN)
“Joker”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
“1917”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
“Parasite” (WILL WIN)
SNUBBED: “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood,” “Peanut Butter Falcon,” and “The Farewell”
Firstly, yes…I’ve seen all the films and why they didn’t just throw a 10th nominee into the mix (for example, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”) is beyond me! Anyway, a couple of months ago, all the buzz indicated that “Joker” (is this film truly worthy of the hype?) was the frontrunner. Then, insiders started talking about “The Irishman” (Scorsese’s much divisive movie was one of my favorites of 2019.) But recently, things have shifted and all the talk appears to be aimed at both “1917” (a technical marvel) and “Parasite” (clearly one of 2019’s best.) General wisdom suggests that the gold is going to Sam Mendes’ much beloved war film for it’s immersive one shot glimpse into the hellfire that is war but, don’t count out Bong Joon Ho’s haunting and eloquent class-war thriller. I’m sure most readers reading this will suggest I’m crazy for betting against “1917”–And they’re probably right!–But I have a strange feeling that there might be a rare Director/Picture split this year. Translation; I’m giving the slight edge to “Parasite.”
Lead Actor:
Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Adam Driver, “Marriage Story” (SHOULD WIN)
Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker” (WILL WIN)
Jonathan Pryce, “The Two Popes”
SNUBBED: Robert DeNiro for “The Irishman,” Adam Sandler for “Uncut Gems,” George Mackay for “1917,” Roman Griffin Davis for “Jojo Rabbit,” Willem Dafoe for “The Lighthouse,” and Eddie Murphy for “Dolemite is My Name”
Fierce competition in this category. And in fact, you could have swapped out these nominees with 5 others and all still would have been more than worthy. That said, this is Phoenix’s prize to lose even though I’d argue that Adam Driver’s subtle and nuanced work was more effective. I loved DiCaprio and Pryce as well! Final note; Nods for Pesci and Pacino but no DeNiro? Bobby was robbed in what was easily his best work in over two decades.
Lead Actress:
Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”
Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women” (SHOULD WIN)
Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”
Renee Zellweger, “Judy” (WILL WIN)
SNUBBED: Awkwafina for “The Farewell,” Jessie Buckley for “Wild Rose,” and Florence Pugh for “Midsommar”
Full confession; I’m embarrassed to admit that I’ve only seen two of the films in this category. I know, I know…I have no excuse! Zellweger has been the frontrunner for many weeks so my money is on her for the win. It should be noted, though, that both Ronan and Johansson were exceptional in their respective roles.
Supporting Actor:
Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes”
Al Pacino, “The Irishman” (SHOULD WIN)
Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” (WILL WIN)
SNUBBED: Shia LeBeouf for “Honey Boy” and Wesley Snipes for “Dolemite is My Name”
Pitt is simply wonderful in “Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood” and the fact that he’s never won an Oscar for acting only increases his chances in what already looks like a done deal. Pacino and Pesci were stellar while a dependable Hanks and and a seasoned Hopkins (who is also likely to earn an Oscar nom in 2021 for the upcoming dementia drama, “The Father”) also brought their A-games, but the gold is most likely going to the Pitt.
Supporting Actress:
Kathy Bates, “Richard Jewell”
Laura Dern, “Marriage Story” (WILL WIN)
Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit” (SHOULD WIN)
Florence Pugh, “Little Women”
Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”
SNUBBED: Rebecca Ferguson for “Doctor Sleep,” Jennifer Lopez for “Hustlers,” and Thomasin McKenzie for “Jojo Rabbit”
All worthy but as is the case with Pitt in the supporting actor category, Dern has been talked up for weeks and while she’s likely to win the gold for her no nonsense performance in “Marriage Story,” it should be noted that Johansson (who also starred in the film Dern is nominated for) is the heart and soul of “Jojo Rabbit,” therefore, I’d actually like to see her pull off the upset in this category.
Director:
Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”
Todd Phillips, “Joker”
Sam Mendes, “1917” (WILL WIN)
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite” (SHOULD WIN)
SNUBBED: Taika Waititi for “Jojo Rabbit” and Marielle Heller for “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Listen…Props to Todd Phillips for making the jump from frat boy comedies like “The Hangover” to something a little more meaty like “Joker” but whether or not he was truly worthy of the nomination is endlessly debatable, especially when taking to consideration how much this twist on the iconic DC villain borrows heavily from the works of Phillips’ fellow nominee, Martin Scorsese. Speaking of Scorsese, there is no doubt that “The Irishman” is divisive. Some have dismissed it as just “Another Scorsese mob movie” while others, myself included, have hailed it a thoughtful look at loyalty, betrayal, and mortality. Meanwhile, Tarantino has fashioned a wonderful love letter to Hollywood, one that many fans would be happy with as his swan song (for the record, I don’t think it will be.) That said, this is most likely a two horse race between Mendes and Joon Ho. You could make a strong argument for Mendes because the one shot angle of the movie draws a lot of attention to his deft touch (and that of DP Roger Deakins, if you want to get technical about it), therefore, I think he’s going to win it. The fact that he just won the DGA only bodes well in his favor. Still, if Joon Ho snuck in for the upset, I’d be completely happy for him. Sidenote: In my humble opinion, Taika Waititi should have taken Phillips’ spot.
Animated Feature:
“How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World,” Dean DeBlois
“I Lost My Body,” Jeremy Clapin (WILL\SHOULD WIN)
“Klaus,” Sergio Pablos
“Missing Link,” Chris Butler
“Toy Story 4,” Josh Cooley
Animated Short:
“Dcera (Daughter),” Daria Kashcheeva (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
“Hair Love,” Matthew A. Cherry
“Kitbull,” Rosana Sullivan
“Memorable,” Bruno Collet
“Sister,” Siqi Song
Adapted Screenplay:
“The Irishman,” Steven Zaillian
“Jojo Rabbit,” Taika Waititi (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
“Joker,” Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
“Little Women,” Greta Gerwig
“The Two Popes,” Anthony McCarten
Original Screenplay:
“Knives Out,” Rian Johnson
“Marriage Story,” Noah Baumbach
“1917,” Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Quentin Tarantino
“Parasite,” Bong Joon-ho, Jin Won Han (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Cinematography:
“The Irishman,” Rodrigo Prieto
“Joker,” Lawrence Sher
“The Lighthouse,” Jarin Blaschke
“1917,” Roger Deakins (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Robert Richardson
Best Documentary Feature:
“American Factory,” Julia Rieichert, Steven Bognar (WILL WIN)
“The Cave,” Feras Fayyad
“The Edge of Democracy,” Petra Costa
“For Sama,” Waad Al-Kateab, Edward Watts
“Honeyland,” Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov
SNUBBED: “Love, Antosha”
Best Documentary Short Subject:
“In the Absence,” Yi Seung-Jun and Gary Byung-Seok Kam
“Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl),” Carol Dysinger (WILL WIN)
“Life Overtakes Me,” Kristine Samuelson and John Haptas
“St. Louis Superman,” Smriti Mundhra and Sami Khan
“Walk Run Cha-Cha,” Laura Nix
Best Live Action Short Film:
“Brotherhood,” Meryam Joobeur (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
“Nefta Football Club,” Yves Piat
“The Neighbors’ Window,” Marshall Curry
“Saria,” Bryan Buckley
“A Sister,” Delphine Girard
Best International Feature Film:
“Corpus Christi,” Jan Komasa
“Honeyland,” Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov
“Les Miserables,” Ladj Ly
“Pain and Glory,” Pedro Almodovar
“Parasite,” Bong Joon Ho (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
Film Editing:
“Ford v Ferrari,” Michael McCusker, Andrew Buckland (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
“The Irishman,” Thelma Schoonmaker
“Jojo Rabbit,” Tom Eagles
“Joker,” Jeff Groth
“Parasite,” Jinmo Yang
Sound Editing:
“Ford v Ferrari,” Don Sylvester (SHOULD WIN)
“Joker,” Alan Robert Murray
“1917,” Oliver Tarney, Rachel Tate (WILL WIN)
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Wylie Stateman
“Star Wars: The Rise of SkyWalker,” Matthew Wood, David Acord
Sound Mixing:
“Ad Astra”
“Ford v Ferrari” (SHOULD WIN)
“Joker”
“1917” (WILL WIN)
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Production Design:
“The Irishman,” Bob Shaw and Regina Graves
“Jojo Rabbit,” Ra Vincent and Nora Sopkova
“1917,” Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales (WILL WIN)
“Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood,” Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh (SHOULD WIN)
“Parasite,” Lee Ha-Jun and Cho Won Woo, Han Ga Ram, and Cho Hee
SNUBBED: “Joker”
Original Score:
“Joker,” Hildur Guðnadóttir (SHOULD WIN)
“Little Women,” Alexandre Desplat
“Marriage Story,” Randy Newman
“1917,” Thomas Newman (WILL WIN)
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker,” John Williams
Original Song:
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” “Toy Story 4”
“I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” “Rocketman” (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
“I’m Standing With You,” “Breakthrough”
“Into the Unknown,” “Frozen 2”
“Stand Up,” “Harriet”
Makeup and Hair:
“Bombshell” (WILL WIN)
“Joker”
“Judy”
“Maleficent: Mistress of Evil”
“1917” (SHOULD WIN)
Costume Design:
”The Irishman,” Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson
“Jojo Rabbit,” Mayes C. Rubeo
“Joker,” Mark Bridges
“Little Women,” Jacqueline Durran (WILL/SHOULD WIN)
“Once Upon a Time …in Hollywood,” Arianne Phillips
Visual Effects:
“Avengers Endgame” (SHOULD WIN)
“The Irishman”
“1917” (WILL WIN)
“The Lion King”
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”
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